Michael Orobona sneaks back into first by one HBP, snapping a seventeen-day streak for former leader Dan McCloskey. Scores plummeted yesterday after strong starts by two Cy Young hopefuls: Dallas Keuchel (19thwin, 7IP) and Jake Arrieta (21st win, 7IP). Keuchel’s performance not only robbed five entrants of a newly-earned David Price AL IP point, but also did away with fifteen points worth of Price/Felix AL wins rewards. Throw in the seven entrants losing their Clayton Kershaw NL IP scores, and we’ve accounted for a 27-point loss poolwide…
With Michael standing tall amongst the wreckage, we look to the final appearances of the aforementioned pitchers. Arrieta, Price, and Felix Hernández each seem assured to make one more start, but plans for Keuchel and Kershaw may be tougher to predict. The Astro ace is slated to make his final regular season start on Saturday, but could conceivably be skipped in favor of an AL wild-card game start (or tiebreaker game, where his stats would count in the pool!). As for Kershaw, the Dodgers could give their lefty two more season starts on regular rest if they choose to.
A win this week for Price or Keuchel essentially giftwraps the pool for Michael, as does a Felix loss/ND. Felix Hernández sharing the AL wins lead (but beating Price) remains the most realistic way for Dan to win, although starts this week by Johnny Cueto and R.A. Dickey shouldn’t be overlooked, given our leaders’ narrow HBP margin. Dan can also regain the lead if Price somehow passes Keuchel in IP without winning, which would probably require Keuchel to miss a start.
Another unlikely scenario exists involving NL steals: if Dee Gordon steals two more bases he passes the injured Billy Hamilton, creating a two-point swing across the leaderboard. Michael and Dan will still be on top without Hamilton, but Jud can actually tie Dan if Kershaw surpasses Arrieta in IP (as long as Jud and Dan remain tied in HBP column). Again, unlikely.
We’ll send a short update if anything major happens before the weekend. Check Twitter or the pool site for daily info!
-Jud and Dan
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